RFK’s Independent Bid Is Hurting Biden In The Polls: Report

March 28, 2024

Robert F. Kennedy Jr. is reportedly hurting President Biden in the polls as he continues his independent campaign for the White House.

Kennedy initially ran against Biden in the Democrat primary and saw some good poll returns despite not having a legitimate shot to win the nomination.

But, as The Political Insider reported at the time, “Man, if only somebody could convince Kennedy to run as an Independent.”

He did. Some readers though were left concerned that his anti-COVID vaccine views were strongly connected to conservative views at the time, and might lead him to siphon votes away from Donald Trump.

The numbers don’t seem to be bearing that out.

Biden Losing Points In Polls That Include RFK Jr.

Trump, the Republican nominee, has gone hard in making sure that voters understand that RFK is more closely aligned with President Biden. The message seems to be coming across in the polls.

“RFK Jr is a lifelong leftist. He voted for Biden in the 2020 election, he calls himself a “Kennedy Democrat,” and has donated to Democrats since 1985,” a Trump campaign email reads. “He endorsed Hillary Clinton in her 2000 Senate run, 2008 presidential run, and over Trump in 2016.”

According to the Intelligencer, while RFK was drawing votes away from both candidates initially, his role has become more defined in recent polls.

“More recent polling has most often shown him helping Trump more than Biden, both nationally and in the battleground states,” they write.

The outlet cites RealClearPolitics numbers that show RFK sways the race by almost four full points. That is a significant shift when discussing two candidates that have been neck-and-neck for some time.

“The RealClearPolitics polling averages nationally now show Trump leading Biden by 1.6 percent (46.6 to 45.0 percent) in a two-candidate race, and by 5.4 percent (40.7 to 35.3 percent, with Kennedy at 12.3 percent) in a three-candidate race,” Intelligencer writes.

The Kennedy Name Alone

RealClearPolling on Tuesday also showed Trump leading or tied with Biden in every swing state with the exception of Wisconsin.

With RFK in the poll, it was a clean sweep for Trump, including Wisconsin going from +1 for Biden to +2 for Trump, a three-point swing, as well as Pennsylvania going from a Tie to +6 for Trump.

That means he could massively sway the election if he stays in. It seems the Kennedy name alone is enough to get some Democrats to vote for RFK.

His own family realizes this. Kennedy has been ostracized from the clan for some time now. But it’s been heating up since they realized he could help Trump win.

RFK’s sister sees the polls. She too is troubled at the notion that her brother is taking votes away from Biden.

“I feel strongly that this is the most important election of our lifetime. And there’s so much at stake, and I do think it’s going to come down to a handful of votes and a handful of states,” Rory Kennedy tells CNN. 

“And I do worry that Bobby just taking some percentage of votes from Biden could shift the election and lead to Trump’s election.”

It will certainly be interesting to see how much pressure Democrats put on him to drop out.

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