Big Double Digit Shift Toward Trump With Voters 18-29

April 19, 2024

Joe Biden has long led Donald Trump with voters 18-29. That was true during the 2020 presidential election and has been true in this one.

According to some new numbers, however, Trump is becoming more competitive with this age group that has historically favored Democrats.

Big Shift Towards Trump for Younger Voters

Between March 14th and 21st, the Harvard Institute of Politics surveyed 2,010 Americans between the ages of 18 and 29.

The poll revealed, “If the presidential election were held today, President Biden would outperform former President Trump among both registered (50% Biden, 37% Trump) and likely young voters under 30 (56% Biden, 37% Trump). When there is no voter screen (i.e., all young adults 18-29), the race narrows to single digits, 45% for President Biden, 37% for former President Trump, with 16 percent undecided.”

Compare this to the last presidential election. That was a close race.

“For context,” the poll noted, “at this stage in the 2020 election, the Harvard Youth Poll showed Biden leading Trump by 23 points among all young adults (51%-28%) and by 30 points (60%- 30%) among likely voters under 30.”

In 2020 Biden led Trump by 23 points with all voters under 30…

Biden’s lead with 18-29 in this election is only eight points.

That’s a major shift, and it’s a 15 shift toward Trump for these younger voters.

There is another area where Trump has a definite advantage over Biden: voter enthusiasm, something almost non-existent on Biden’s side.

Today, Biden’s lead among this same group has dropped to just eight points. That is a 15-point shift in Trump’s direction.

“Three-quarters (76%) of Trump voters say they enthusiastically support their candidate,” the poll observes, “while 44% of Biden voters say the same.”

Ouch.

Not Optimistic Numbers For Biden

Other findings show that only nine percent of voters under age 30 believe the America is on the right track, and 58 percent of them say the country is on the wrong track.

“Young people today have clear concerns about where our country is headed,” said Setti Warren, the director of the Insitute of Politics at Harvard Kennedy School, in a news release. 

“From worries about the economy, foreign policy, immigration, and climate, young people across the country are paying attention and are increasingly prepared to make their voices heard at the ballot box this November,” Warren added.

With these young voters, Biden’s job approval rating sis 31 percent. Vice President Kamala Harris? About the same low at 32 percent.

“Make no mistake, this is a different youth electorate than we saw in 2020 and 2022, and young voters are motivated by different things,” John Della Volpe, polling director for the Harvard Kennedy School Institute of Politics and an expert on polling young voters, told Politico.

“Economic issues are top of mind, housing is a major concern — and the gap between young men’s and young women’s political preferences is pronounced,” he continued.

Make no mistake. Joe Biden still leads with this key voter demographic.

But not by nearly as much as he did in the already close race of 2020.